It’s about the time of year when one starts to think about what might be in the next season at the COC.  The last couple of years the announcement has just been an email drop and there’s really no way of telling when it will happen.  In about a month’s time is likely so if I’m going to make some predictions now is a pretty good time.

Once upon a time there were some pretty good indicators of what the next COC season might look like.  Rumours aside, one could look at:

• Co-productions with other companies and expect that they would come around sooner or later
• Ditto commissions of new work
• A certain regularity in the recurrence of “popular” works.  Madama Butterfly every five years for example.

The trouble is none of this seems to be relevant anymore.  Co-pros and commissions disappear without trace and the regularity patterns seem no longer to apply.  The only real certainty is that three or four shows will be revivals.  All of which makes trying to make predictions a bit daft… which makes me ideally suited to do it.  So here goes…

There’s bound to be some Mozart I think.  The bold move wold the Carsen Idomeneo, which is a COC co-pro and excellent.  More likely is a revival of the Egoyan Cosí fan tutte and I suppose there’s a risk they’ll bring back the not very exciting Magic Flute.  My money would be on Cosí.  It’s surely too soon to bring back Marriage of Figaro or Don Giovanni.

Verdi is also pretty likely.  There’s a co-pro of La forza del destino out there and that would be the bold choice.  One also wonders if they will ever bring back the Albery Aida.  It would be very divisive but like the beer ad says “Those who like it, like it a lot”.  The really safe (almost yawn worthy) choice would be La traviata .  It’s really too soon to bring it back IMHO since it was seen as recently as 2022 but I’d say that’s the likeliest bet and, to be fair, it’s a pretty good production.

And then there’s Ian Cusson’s Empire of Wild.  That’s scheduled for workshops this year so it would be feasible to programme it in 2026/27, perhaps towards the end of the season.  I think that’s unlikely.  They would have to announce it before the workshopping was complete which would be risky.  They might also want to wait until after the brouhaha over the Cusson/Vavrek Indians on Vacation settles down.

Other co-pros and commissions out there include Ana Sokolović’s The Old Fools and Kaija Saariaho’s Only the Sound Remains.  The Old Fools was programmed for 2020 but obviously didn’t happen so that’s a maybe, especially if Empire of Wild doesn’t happen.  The Saariaho has been around since 2018 so it’s hard not to conclude that it’s been kicked into the long grass.  In some ways that’s a real pity because it’s pretty interesting and cheap; two soloists, chorus of four, chamber ensemble.

A Donizetti comedy must be a possibility as a crowd pleaser that’s not too expensive.  La fille du régiment would be nice. I just hope they don’t revive the rather feeble L’elisir d’amore.  Of course just about any bel canto work, comedy or not, could fill this slot and it’s been over ten years since they last did Lucia di Lammermoor.  And there have been plenty of COC season’s with no comedies.

Two notable composers who haven’t featured in a while are Benjamin Britten (last seen in 2010) and Richard Strauss (Elektra in 2019).  Salome doesn’t count.  Revivals of 2008’s A Midsummer Night’s Dream and 2010’s Ariadne auf Naxos would be at the audience friendly end of both composers’ outputs though new productions of The Turn of the Screw (cheap!) and Der Rosenkavalier (not so cheap) would be nice and probably sell well but are, I think, unlikely.  Handel is another “A list” composer who hasn’t been seen in a while (Ariodante in 2016).  Emily D’Angelo would be serious box office in a revival but I doubt they could get her.  Another option would be Giulio Cesare which hasn’t been done since before the FSC opened and one can always dream about a production of Theodora.  Trouble is, I think Handel is perceived as hard to sell so I doubt it will happen.

Of course there’s every chance that somebody in the COC leadership has seen a production of just about anything that they fancy and could rent but there’s no way of predicting that.

So, going out on a very shaky limb with Death, saw in hand, lurking in the background here goes:

• La traviata (with a slim chance of Aida)
• Cosí fan tutte (while praying for Idomeneo and in dread of The Magic Flute)
• The Old Fools (or just maybe Empire of Wild)
• La fille du régiment (or, just maybe, Lucia di Lammermoor)

After that it’s speculation and/or wishful thinking but I’d say Ariadne auf Naxos and A Midsummer Night’s Dream would at least make sense as uncontroversial and not too recent revivals.

That would make four revivals and two new (to Toronto) productions which sounds about right.